If you're on TikTok or Instagram, or buy most of your tinned fish from the supermarket, you've no doubt noticed there's a shortage of tinned sardines right now.
The reason behind the shortage of tinned sardines
Some are pointing to overfishing driven by tinned fish's newfound popularity on social media, with viral trends like "sardinemaxxing" and "sardine girl summer." Others point to the war in Iran, which has pushed up fuel costs for fishing fleets after the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. There's some truth to the second explanation - rising fuel costs have made it more expensive for boats to travel further for smaller catches - but the fundamental issue is something else entirely: warming seas.
Why warmer seas mean less food for sardines
Sardines, specifically Sardina pilchardus, sit close to the bottom of the food chain. They feed on phytoplankton, which rely on sunlight and nutrients in the water to thrive. Those nutrients need to travel from the bottom of the ocean to the surface, a process called upwelling, where deep water mixes with water at the top.
In warmer parts of the world, or where oceans are warming as a result of climate change, a warm top layer of water inhibits this upwelling. That reduces the nutrients available for phytoplankton, leaving sardines with a less plentiful food source. Less food means fewer fish, and smaller ones too.
Morocco - the global leader in tinned sardines faces crisis
Nowhere has this been felt more than in Morocco's North African fisheries. Morocco has historically landed about 60% of the global sardine catch - huge, especially compared to Spain and Portugal's combined 7% (based on 2003–2022 average wild-caught fish numbers).
So it's little surprise that as Morocco's sardine landings plummet due to warming seas - they fell 46% in 2024 - the impact is being felt across the supply of tinned sardines, especially the cheaper, own-brand ones found in supermarkets.
The good news - Portugal, Spain and the UK have growing sardine populations
So what does this mean for sardines from Portugal, Spain and the UK? The good news is that stocks around Spain and Portugal are doing well. There were historic issues with the Iberian fleet overfishing, but the fishery is now much better managed, with a shorter fishing season and reduced quotas. It has since regained its MSC certification, and sardine populations are increasing in the Bay of Biscay and the Iberian Atlantic.
In the UK, the picture is even better: UK sardine stocks are at record levels, giving Cornish sardines one of the strongest sustainability stories in European fishing right now.
Buy sustainably sourced sardines from Portugal, Spain and the UK
The upshot? You don't need to give up tinned sardines - you just need to know where to look. Sardines from Portugal, Spain and the UK are thriving, sustainably managed, and some of the best-tasting tins you can get your hands on. So instead of settling for a supermarket shelf hit by the Moroccan shortage, it's the perfect time to explore what these fisheries have to offer.
We've put together a collection of some of the best tinned sardines from these well-managed, sustainable fisheries, so check them out and let us know what you think!
FAQ
Why is there a shortage of tinned sardines in 2026?
Warming seas, mostly around Morocco, have disrupted the upwelling process that brings nutrients to the surface for phytoplankton - the base of the sardine food chain. Less food means fewer, smaller fish, and since Morocco supplies around 60% of the world's catch, cheaper supermarket tins have been hit hardest.
Is the sardine shortage caused by overfishing or social media trends?
Not really. Tinned fish has surged in popularity on TikTok and Instagram, but the underlying shortage is driven by climate-related changes to ocean temperature and nutrient cycling, not by demand from viral trends.
Is there also a shortage of sardines from Portugal, Spain and the UK too?
No, sardine populations are increasing. Iberian sardine stocks have recovered significantly after years of tighter quotas and shorter seasons, regaining MSC sustainability certification in 2025, while UK stocks off Cornwall are at record levels.
Where can I still buy sustainably sourced tinned sardines?
Sardines from Portugal, Spain and the UK remain well-stocked and sustainably managed - a good alternative while Moroccan supply recovers.
What is "sardinemaxxing"?
A TikTok and Instagram trend where people eat large quantities of tinned sardines for perceived health benefits. It's been linked to a 30% rise in UK sardine sales over the past year, according to Seafish.